ABSTRACT
Many epidemic diseases spread and infect humans, including Corona pandemic, which has spread throughout the world, including our country, Iraq, and to all provinces randomly and with different rates of infection. It is difficult to control this disease and determine the exact increase or decrease in the number of people infected with it. Predicting the numbers of people affected by this epidemic supports decision-makers in health institutions to make the right decisions regarding preparedness to face it in terms of providing the infrastructure and human resources of the crisis, and the more accurate the prediction, the more influential the decisions in containing this epidemic. A new framework was proposed by studying the spread of this epidemic, which depends on random spread, so Markov sequences were used, which do not rely mainly on past data to predict the future. The aim of this research is to predict the numbers of people infected with this disease through the use of statistical methods, especially the Markov chains method, which is characterized by its ability to predict the future of cases that are characterized by randomness in spread and not relying on past data only. The accuracy of the results of this research depends on the accuracy of the data taken from the Health Department of Baghdad Governorate / Al-Rusafa side, as well as on the factors affecting the spread of this disease that were taken from the research centers concerned with this epidemic. © 2022 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.